Published June 16, 2022
During the first round of the French legislative elections on June 12, Harris Interactive and Toluna produced voting estimates for media partners, M6 and RTL. This included national voting estimates –balance of power and projection in seats, according to the classification of the Ministry of the Interior—as well as local estimates in high-stakes constituencies.
While all eyes were on the national ballot and the potential outcome for the next Assembly, Harris Interactive and Toluna are extremely proud of the accuracy of the estimates put forth by the team.
At 5PM on June 12, the team provided an estimate of 47.5% voting participation by 8PM – which was the exact same as final participation (47.51%).
At 8PM, the team projected a virtual tie between Ensemble and NUPES, anticipating that the results would be extremely close; in the final numbers published by the Ministry of the Interior later that night, only 0.1% separated the two. For Rassemblement National, Républicains-UDI, Reconquête, the team’s projections were accurate within +/- 0.5%.
The team was able to share these results at 8PM without refining the data during the evening—a unique feat in the market that was made possible by confidence in the projection model developed by the Harris Interactive and Toluna teams.
This strong showing in the first round of French legislative elections began with nearly a dozen voting intention barometers, which allowed the Harris Interactive and Toluna teams to accurately decipher trends leading up to the vote.
Harris Interactive and Toluna invite you to tune in to their partners, M6 and RTL, for coverage and estimates for the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday, June 19.
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